Oregon Economic Forecast

Joel Pawloski
May 14
2 min read

80% projection of no growth or recession

The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has produced their forecast for Oregon’s economy and it what you would expect, abysmal.

The forecast projects 80% no growth or recession for Oregon. Meanwhile, the rest of the country is starting to boom.

Oregon democrats will attempt to blame the Trump administration tariffs, but the hard data from Federal reserve show the tariffs have had zero negative impact on inflation and the nationwide economy.

This economic disaster is all on Oregon Democrats, with Gov Kotek leading the charge as Speaker, as they are responsible for the series of tax increases over the past several years and the additional burdensome regulations imposed on Oregonians. Not to the mention the useless and destructive COVID lockdowns that destroyed thousands of small businesses in Oregon.

Income taxes are falling short $529 million from the original projection

Lottery revenue is short $36 million and Marijuana taxes are short $7 million.

Corporate Activity Tax revenues in 2025-27 have dropped $44.4 million.

Lawmakers now have $755 million less funds than what they projected at the beginning of the year. This change has happened in one quarter, 3 months.

Oregon’s unemployment is up. The unemployment rate was 4.6% in March versus 4.1% in March 2024. The national unemployment is 4.1%

Oregon GDP growth trailed the U.S. GDP growth by an average of 1.2 percentage points in 2024.

All of the big taxes since 2019 (Corporate Activities Tax, METRO Homeless Income/business tax hike, biennial gas tax increases, etc…) are dragging Oregon’s economy down.

In addition the 2025 Democrat controlled Legislature is considering adding these taxes:

• Kicker theft (HB 1177)

• Gas tax, wage tax, bike tax, truck tax car tax

• 3% property tax (SB 712)

• 8% beer-wine tax (Hb 1197)

• Timber Tax (HB 3489)

• Drink tax (Hb 3940)

• $120 Million Google/Facebook tax (SB 686)

• 250% marriage fee hike (SB 97)

• 4% tire tax (Hb 3362)

• Vaping, Hookah, tobacco tax (Hb 2528)

• $500M hospital-healthcare tax (Hb 2010)